10 Workforce Insights Post COVID-19
How do we make sure that the future we create is better than what we are leaving behind, and how do we make sure that everyone has a place in the new world order? No one knows the answers to these questions for certain, but current developments point to what the future “normal” might look like. Here are ten workforce predictions as we come out of COVID-19.
The Canadian numbers are stark and will have grown by the time you read this.
The one-month decline in employment experienced in March 2020 is unprecedented and is about two and a half times as large as the cumulative decline in employment experienced during the 2008-2009 recession. Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey for March captured a period in which many businesses and organizations were scaling-back or shutting down as states of emergency were declared and restrictions on international travel were put in place. New programs have been introduced by the Federal Government to shore up incomes as the Coronavirus ravages lives and the economy. Nearly six million people have applied for CERB emergency aid benefits since March 15th. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting “…the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression”.
Against this backdrop, and because human nature tends to optimism, minds have begun to turn to the pathway out of COVID-19. What will the world look like when we venture outside again? What exactly does “opening up the economy” entail? Is it business as usual, or, has the economic landscape shifted, perhaps permanently? What does this mean for the current and future workforce? What policy positions do federal and provincial governments take in a rapidly changing environment?
And, most importantly, how do we make sure that the future we create is better than what we are leaving behind? How do we make sure everyone has a place in the new world order? No one knows the answers to these questions for certain, but current developments point to what the future “normal” might look like.
Here are ten workforce predictions as we come out of COVID-19.
#1
The Workforce Landscape Has Permanently Shifted
Not every business will survive the pandemic, and the businesses that will survive, have re-grouped during the shut-down. They won’t necessarily emerge from COVID-19 with the same operating model or with the same staffing requirements. This means:
o Not all employees who were laid off, will be called back. Employers will re-hire according to new realities, new working models and with new skill sets in mind.
o New types of employment opportunities will emerge.
o “Front-line” worker has been permanently redefined, leading to some traditionally low-wage jobs becoming more attractive due to an upward pressure on wages.
o Displaced workers will need high-quality, rapid response employment and training supports to re-enter the workforce.
#2
Community Colleges and Other Training Institutions Will Be the Front-Line Workforce Responders
A significant re-alignment of the workforce will push demand for training for both the unemployed and the employed. The pressing need for workforce training will compete with youth entering post-secondary education as a next step in their career path. This means:
o Increased demand for education and training which will drive different models of delivery and operations, pressuring faculty and programming capacity
o Accelerated requirements for micro-credentialing, and other short-term training responses
o Growing demand for industry-focused, customized training for the currently employed; potentially permanently shifting the landscape of education and certification
o Immediate and increased demand for quality online training
o Increased need for workers and businesses to receive guidance when evaluating the quality and effectiveness of education and training offerings
o Renewed interest in the concept of Training Accounts for Employed Workers, funded by business and government.
#3
New Models of Employer-Led Training will Emerge
The movement towards digital technologies in the workplace, including artificial intelligence and machine learning has grown during the pandemic, pressuring business leaders to have the resources and capacity to identify individual or collective training requirements to achieve business goals; including the ability to evaluate programs for return on investment. This significant expectation is further complicated by the size of the company, maturity, sectoral disruption, and other business needs. Which all points to many employers needing guidance and support to make training decisions and identify training providers. This means:
o A renewed focus on sector-based training, which will identify common training requirements across a cluster of businesses
o Growing numbers of private-sector training organizations and offerings with widely varying quality and effectiveness
o Increased pressure on individuals to make self-directed training decisions, often in the absence of quality employment guidance and counselling
o New lines of business for Community Colleges and other training institutions which will be called on not just to prepare new entrants to the workforce, but to continuously up-skill and re-skill the employed workforce.
#4
Interest in All Things Local Will Put Pressure on The Available Workforce.
The first thing to rebound as we venture out of our houses will be local experiences. Starting with eating out in local restaurants and being a tourist in our own community and region. This means:
o Growing demand for front-line workers (hospitality/service industry/harvesters) creating an upward pressure on wages, translating to price increases over time.
o Increased interest in food security (access) and local supply chains, which will have an upward pressure on prices, resulting in increased food insecurity (affordability) for many Canadians.
o Temporary foreign workers may not be as available depending on containment of the virus in both their country of origin and here in Canada. This will spark intense debates on who should be doing the work and increased pressure on employers who need a reliable workforce.
#5
Demand for On-Line Shopping and Services Has Surged and Will Stay High Post COVID-19
The shift to online ordering for groceries, prepared foods and other services is here to stay. This means:
o New working models for local grocery, retail and service providers resulting in new jobs and new forms of employment and contracted services
o Increased demand for delivery services (pressuring a minimally regulated environment and increased demand for fair wages in safer conditions)
#6
The need to work remotely from home during COVID-19 was a successful experiment and will continue post COVID-19
Employers discovered that more types of work could be done remotely than previously thought possible, including provision of services (banking for example). This means:
o Businesses will normalize remote working arrangements, saving capital costs and driving new conferencing and work services.
o More employers will pay for employee’s home internet service, offset by reduced office costs.
o Increased demand for flexible childcare
o Renewed demand for improved internet access and service across the country
#7
Targeted ‘Re-Shoring’ of Manufacturing will Accelerate Post COVID-19
As we emerge from COVID-19 restrictions, national supply chains are being examined for self-sufficiency gaps, particularly in critical areas such as medicine, medical equipment, food, technology and more. In addition, during COVID-19, manufacturers discovered they could re-tool and pivot their workforce quickly to meet demand. These shifts, coupled with increased automation and robotics, will diminish ‘access to low-cost labour’ as the dominant factor in decision making, in a number of sectors. This means:
o Increased incentives to repatriate targeted manufacturing into the future
o Pressure to train and re-skill workers to new, value-add processes and technologies
o Increased inter-jurisdictional competition for manufacturing based on workforce quality and availability
#8
Guaranteed Annual Income will Move up the National Agenda
Six million Canadians have now participated in what is effectively a basic income program (CERB) providing stability in uncertain times. Workforce displacement and increased automation will result in a continuing demand for an income safety net for Canadians beyond the pandemic. A guaranteed annual income holds the promise of protecting the most vulnerable, addressing food and housing insecurity and allowing people the time and space to train and re-train for employment, potentially easing workforce shortages. This means:
o A push to streamline the myriad national and provincial income transfer programs now in place, requiring unprecedented cooperation between all levels of government. Means-testing vs. universality will underpin the debate.
o Momentum to move beyond left and right rhetoric to the development of an economic and social business case for guaranteed income programs. Evaluated pilots will test viability.
o Upward pressure on minimum wage discussions in all jurisdictions
o Increased need for access to employment services to ensure that those who can work find their place in the workforce.
#9
Unions must rethink themselves to respond to a new world of work
Although unionized workers tended to fare better through the COVID-19 restrictions, unions have not adapted to new forms of work and are becoming increasingly irrelevant to “gig”, part-time and home-based workers. Unions need to rethink themselves in this landscape if they are to survive. Unions deserve credit for workforce breakthroughs such as OHS protections and maternity/paternity leave, but the time has come for Union leadership to re-think their value proposition to workers who make their living through short-term contracts and free-lance work. This means:
o Contentious relationships until new models of employer/employee/union relationships emerge
o Direct employer to worker negotiations on incentives that are not negotiated with the union (think pay-bumps for front-line workers during COVID-19)
o New forms of “unionization” (worker cooperatives and skill guilds) and new models of worker compensation will appear (health benefits and ways to save)
#10
Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion must continue to make gains
The impact of the economic and social shifts described above are further magnified for those in vulnerable socio-economic groups who are more likely to be excluded than included in the changing labour market. When employed, these groups are more likely than population averages to earn lower incomes, experience hazardous working conditions, work precariously, have limited access to employment legislation or statutory benefits and have fewer opportunities for career advancement. This means:
o High-quality, accessible employment programs and services are needed to promote equitable outcomes for all. These services must not be limited to those who are in receipt of EI or other income supports.
o Foundational programming, including adult upgrading, literacy and employment skills will provide an essential bridge to ensure that social divides do not become wider post-COVID19
o New models of employment services which bridge people directly to the workforce will be in demand.
From here to there…..
Economic and social disruptions were with us before COVID-19 and have been further accelerated by the pandemic, creating new social and economic realities for us all.
This means our recovery can’t rely on the best laid plans of 2019.
These workforce outlooks hold the seeds of calamity or prosperity, depending on which path we choose. Let’s take a breath, think, talk, and build a future where we all find a place to fit.
Sandra McKenzie
Co-Founder
sandra@theforgeinstitute.ca
